Liverpool or Arsenal? What the stats say about the Premier League title race

The Premier League title race has entered its final stage, and the nerves of each team are beginning to tighten. Liverpool's narrow 2-1 victory over Wolves on Sunday brought cheers at Anfield, filled with both joy and a sense of relief. Despite Liverpool failing to register a single shot in the second half, they maintained their seven-point lead at the top of the table, showcasing their resilience.

Liverpool defender Andy Robertson admitted after the win against Wolves: "Everyone gets nervous, the players get nervous, the fans get nervous - that's natural. But we've got another game out of the way, and this win is massive." With 13 games remaining, how likely is it that Liverpool will be caught by other teams? Which team has the most difficult schedule, potentially impacting their chances?

Liverpool's performance against Wolves was not particularly exciting. In the first half, Liverpool took a 2-0 lead thanks to goals from Luis Diaz and a penalty from Mohamed Salah. However, the struggling Wolves performed better in the second half. According to Opta, this was the first time since records began in the 2003-04 season that Liverpool failed to register a single shot in the second half of a Premier League game at Anfield. In fact, it was also the first time during this period that Liverpool failed to attempt any shots in a home league half.

Liverpool manager Arne Slot was pleased to see his team demonstrate the ability to win games in different ways. He said in an interview with BBC's "Match of the Day": "We have to show a different mentality, we did it, and we finally won the game. In such a season, we played a lot of wonderful games, but if you want to win something, you also have to win those difficult games, even if you don't play at your best. If you want to achieve something, it's not just about passing the ball out from the back or letting Salah score, but also defending well."

Opta's supercomputer predicts that Liverpool will comfortably win the Premier League title, forecasting them to finish the season with 87 points, seven ahead of Arsenal. Statisticians believe Liverpool has an 87.65% chance of winning the title, while Arsenal's chances are only 12.35%. The probability of all other teams finishing first is 0%. Liverpool's upcoming schedule is very dense, with a league game almost every three days until the end of the month. But in March, things will ease considerably, with Liverpool playing only one league game - at home against bottom-placed Southampton.

But that doesn't mean March will be quiet, as Liverpool will face Newcastle in the League Cup final on March 16. On March 4 or 5, Liverpool will also face the first leg of the Champions League Round of 16, and their opponents will be Paris Saint-Germain, Benfica, Monaco, or Brest. The second leg at Anfield will be played a week later. Liverpool will end the season at home against Crystal Palace - by which time they hope to have already secured the title, capping off a successful campaign.

Arsenal are unbeaten in their last 15 league games (10 wins and 5 draws), their longest unbeaten run under Mikel Arteta. They have one fewer Premier League game than Liverpool in the remainder of this month, but one more game than Liverpool in March. Arsenal fans will be hoping their team is still in the title race when they travel to Anfield on May 10, as a good result in that game would set them up for their subsequent home game against Newcastle and the final day away game against Southampton, where the Saints could be relegated.

Liverpool's three points against Wolves were undoubtedly a relief, as they now face two tough away games - against Aston Villa and Manchester City, respectively. They will also face rivals Arsenal at the end of the season, but with home advantage. Meanwhile, Arsenal will face six teams from the top half of the table in their final 13 games, presenting a significant challenge to their title aspirations.