Manchester City's latest defeat marks yet another farewell to a competition, and the decline of this once-glorious team is perplexing, leaving many lamenting their current state. After a crushing defeat in Madrid, they will host Premier League leaders Liverpool on Sunday, unusually positioned as underdogs. They have already withdrawn from the title race and have lost 13 of their last 26 games in all competitions.
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02-23, 2025Currently, Manchester City's problems are almost too numerous to count. The team is aging, plagued by injuries, and players are making uncharacteristic errors. A lack of confidence leads to passive performances, accompanied by a goal drought. Key players are underperforming, as demonstrated by their complete loss of form at the Bernabéu on Wednesday. However, these are merely symptoms, not the root cause.
Manchester City's predicament is a deeply rooted tactical issue. As Guardiola has admitted, this involves not only the loss of historical tactical standards but also the need for renewal and embracing the future. As Guardiola candidly stated after the first-leg loss to Real Madrid: "It's not as effective as it used to be."
Amidst Manchester City's ongoing crisis, Guardiola has begun to reflect on tactical matters in press conferences. Several weeks ago, he offered a particularly insightful observation. He stated: "Modern football today is not positional play. You have to handle the rhythm." This is quite an admission from the progenitor of "positional play," which has dominated world football since his Barcelona team won everything 15 years ago.
This raises a question larger than this article: Is this the end of the "Guardiola-ization" of modern football? Rapid attacks after possession changes—namely, transitional attacks—are arguably surpassing Guardiola's ideology at the elite level, with increasing emphasis on direct football that deliberately contrasts with possession and territory. While Liverpool has found success this season under Klopp with less chaos and more control than before, and Tottenham Hotspur's rapid, linear football has faltered due to a thin squad, the data exists.
Looking back at the Premier League data from the past eight seasons, since Guardiola won his first title in England, we can see a clear increase in high pressing, oppression (shown by a decrease in passes per defensive action (PPDA)), quick counter-attacks, and direct attacking play.
It's still early days, but there is some evidence that Guardiola is beginning to lean into an updated version of Manchester City. He reshaped his first Manchester City team, which dominated domestically. He then refined it into a more clinical, more physical treble-winning machine—with Erling Haaland and a host of tall center-backs.
Notably, Manchester City frequently launched long passes into the opponent's defensive line, with new signing Omar Marmoush making several runs alongside Haaland. Two runs in behind from the forward line is a significant departure for Guardiola. This was a tactical discovery that he later reused, this time to bypass the away side’s man-marking press.
Marmoush's opening goal after receiving a long pass from Ederson is part of a broader pattern. Everyone is talking about Ederson's record of goalkeeper assists in the Premier League, but it's more than that. Manchester City completed 39 long passes against Newcastle, their fourth-highest number this season and the most since November 2, while 30.2% of Ederson's open-play passes were long, his second-highest percentage this season.
But Marmoush isn't the only new signing changing the status quo. Nico González—the "mini-Rodri," as Guardiola told BBC Sport—again squeezed the midfield and controlled the tempo of the game. His stats were outstanding: González topped the charts for touches (112), completed passes (100), passing accuracy (97.1%), and tackles and interceptions (4).
It would be too simplistic to blame all of this on Rodri's absence, but what's important isn't what Rodri brings to Manchester City, but what he represents—he symbolizes decline both on and off the pitch. In possession, he brings control and order. This doesn't just mean a thousand passes, but bravely controlling the ball in tight spaces and releasing it, breaking the opponent's press.
Out of possession, he presses and harasses the opponent, especially after Manchester City loses the ball (known as counter-pressing), to stop counter-attacks at the source. To give a typical example, compare Manchester City's home league game against Manchester United: a 2-1 loss this season without Rodri, and a 3-1 win last season with Rodri. In the 2023-24 derby, Manchester City had more possession (73% compared to 52% this season) and performed better in terms of shots (27-3 compared to 10-10), a difference almost entirely explained by Rodri.
Rodri made significantly more tackles than his replacement in the same fixture in 2024-25, İlkay Gündoğan (8 compared to 3), and had 50 more touches (123 compared to 73). This has been happening almost weekly, as these two distinct but interconnected problems have infected every part of the pitch since Rodri's injury.
Manchester City's possession, touches per 90 minutes, and passes per 90 minutes have all decreased significantly compared to last season, reducing their control over the game and, as Guardiola says, weakening their ability to "rest." "The problem is that we cannot rest with the ball," Guardiola told The Athletic after the first-leg loss to Real Madrid. "When the team had huge success, we were able to make 20, 25, 30 passes in the opponent's half, but now we can't."
The core principle of Guardiola's philosophy is to recompress the formation and stay in those perfect positions, cutting off the routes for counter-attacks—if the ball is lost—and establishing familiar paths to find the route to goal. To strictly stay in those positions, or to return to orderly order after difficult moments, you need those "rest" periods. Without them, Manchester City becomes dispersed and more wild, and therefore more vulnerable to quick counter-attacks and panicked defensive errors from defenders pulled out of position.
By comparing the 3-1 win against Brentford led by Rodri in the 2023-24 season (when Manchester City had 72% possession) with the chaotic 2-2 draw without Rodri in the 2024-25 season (when Manchester City only had 55% possession), we can see that Guardiola's team was more compact last season than this season.
This brings us to the second part of Rodri's absence: defensive collapse. Manchester City's pressing has declined, and their ability to win the ball high up the pitch has also decreased. What better evidence than Mbappé's opening goal on Wednesday? Manchester City pushed high at the time, but didn't put pressure on the ball, allowing Raúl Asensio to loft the ball over the top. Given the pace of Salah and Díaz in behind for Liverpool, this is surely a real concern on Sunday.
Less efficient pressing and counter-pressing means that it is more difficult for Manchester City to stop quick counter-attacks through the middle. This season, their opponents have been allowed to control the ball unchallenged for longer periods, giving them time to build their pre-planned counter-attacks. This aligns with what is plain to see, and there is a distinct feeling that Manchester City might become passive—either failing to press together, so the opponent cuts through them on the counter, or simply sitting back and letting the game pass them by.
A high defensive line without effective pressing, and an aging midfield unable to cover ground to fill the gaps, is the root of the disaster. Personnel is also part of the problem—not only losing the metronome, but also with Rúben Dias, Akanji, and Ederson absent for much of the season—and, as Gündoğan hinted after their Champions League play-off first leg, it is also a "mental issue," saying: "You can see that sometimes we miss a ball or lose a duel and you see that we immediately drop and lose the rhythm."
In summary, what you get is the core tactical principles being stripped away—by Rodri's absence, or at least by what he symbolizes—and a chain reaction of uncontrolled football, including losing 50-50 balls, rushing out of the defensive line to make mistakes, and attacking more quickly than Guardiola would like.
González provides what Manchester City has desperately wanted all season: control. Marmoush provides what they didn't even know they needed: chaos. It's a delightful balance of reconnecting with the past and pushing into the future. Of course, there are still areas for improvement. Manchester City's wingers aren't as deadly as they used to be. Haaland's lack of movement outside the box is an ongoing debate. Kyle Walker's decline—now on loan at AC Milan—coincides with a difficult year for Rico Lewis.
But fundamentally, these problems all stem from the epicenter, from the initial earthquake that shook Manchester City off course. If González is the new Rodri, and if Marmoush helps refine the strategy, then Guardiola may already be making progress in reviving and modernizing Manchester City's tactics.
