2025 Oscar predictions, according to a film critic and a mathematician

Every year, leading up to the Academy Awards ceremony, it has become a long-standing tradition to invite film critics and mathematicians to predict the winners. They each apply their professional knowledge in an attempt to reveal the ultimate victors. This combination of expertise and analytical skill provides a unique perspective on the awards season.

In last year's predictions, the mathematician had the upper hand, successfully predicting 9 out of 10 awards, two more than the film critic. In the previous year's showdown, the two sides were evenly matched. This year, the intellectual competition will be staged again, and the results are highly anticipated. The anticipation builds as both sides prepare their analyses and arguments.

Returning this year is American mathematical prodigy Ben Zazmer, author of "Oscar Metrics: The Mathematics Behind Hollywood Nights," whose calculations are sought after by The Hollywood Reporter every year. Zazmer constructs mathematical models for each Oscar award category by analyzing other awards ceremonies, historical Oscar winner trends, and other factors. His models provide a data-driven approach to predicting the winners.

The new challenger is Melbourne film critic Sonia Nair, whose articles have appeared in publications such as The Age, The Guardian, Melbourne Timeout, Kill Your Darlings, and The Big Issue. The two experts will make predictions for each award, and the final results will be revealed at 11 a.m. AEDT on March 3. This head-to-head competition will offer an interesting contrast in prediction methodologies.

Here are the film critic's and mathematician's predictions for the major awards:

Best Picture

Critic: "Anora"

Mathematician: "Anora"

The critic believes that although "The Re-Election" has made gains at the Screen Actors Guild Awards and the British Academy Film Awards, the Best Picture award will still go to the independent film "Anora," which has swept the Critics' Choice Awards, the Directors Guild Awards, and the Producers Guild Awards. This film's critical acclaim positions it as a strong contender.

The mathematician says that "Barbarian Invasion" initially seemed to be the frontrunner, while "The Re-Election" has recently risen strongly with victories at the British Academy Film Awards and the Screen Actors Guild Awards. However, in the meantime, "Anora," with its Critics' Choice Award, Directors Guild Award, and Producers Guild Award honors, has done enough to be considered a slight frontrunner. These multiple accolades suggest a strong consensus in favor of "Anora."

Best Director

Critic: Sean Baker ("Anora")

Mathematician: Sean Baker ("Anora")

The critic believes that Sean Baker and Brady Corbet ("Barbarian Invasion") are evenly matched, but considering Baker's victories at the Directors Guild Awards and the Producers Guild Awards, which are often reliable indicators of success, he predicts Baker will win. Baker's momentum from these key awards makes him a likely winner.

The mathematician says that Sean Baker and Brady Corbet are very close, but given the Directors Guild Award's strong track record in this award category, it's hard not to support Baker. The DGA win carries significant weight in predicting the Best Director Oscar.

Best Actor

Critic: Timothée Chalamet ("A Complete Unknown")

Mathematician: Adrien Brody ("Barbarian Invasion")

The critic believes that Adrien Brody ("Barbarian Invasion") is undoubtedly the favorite, but he's taking a risk by predicting the award will go to Timothée Chalamet, who impressed him with his quirky Oscar campaign and his "wanting to be one of the greats" acceptance speech after winning the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Actor. As Luke Goodsell observed in 2023, Oscar voters love male leads playing musical legends. If Chalamet wins, he will break Brody's record as the youngest Best Actor winner at 29 years old (one month shy of 30) for his role in "The Pianist" in 2002. This bold prediction hinges on Chalamet's campaign and the Academy's historical preferences.

The mathematician says that Timothée Chalamet made the competition close with his Screen Actors Guild Award win on Sunday night. But Brody's lead is too great to be defeated at the Oscars. Despite Chalamet's recent success, Brody's overall performance throughout the awards season gives him a significant advantage.

Best Actress

Critic: Demi Moore ("The Substance")

Mathematician: Demi Moore ("The Substance")

The critic believes that anyone who has seen Moore play the woman in "The Substance" who is unable to prepare for her long-awaited date due to her insecurities cannot deny her acting, but Mikey Madison was excellent in "Anora" and won the award at the British Academy Film Awards, posing a final threat to Demi's sweep of the pre-awards ceremonies. However, since the award is a lifetime achievement award for an actress who has never been nominated for an Oscar, he believes Moore is a shoo-in. This prediction considers both Moore's performance and her long and successful career.

The mathematician says this is the closest of the four acting awards, with Mikey Madison ("Anora") and Fernanda Torres ("I'm Still Here") also being viable options. But his model prefers Moore, partly because of her Golden Globe, Critics' Choice Award, and Screen Actors Guild Award wins. Moore's consistent recognition throughout the awards season makes her a strong contender in the model.

Best Supporting Actor

Critic: Kieran Culkin ("A Real Pain")

Mathematician: Kieran Culkin ("A Real Pain")

The critic believes this seems to be the easiest category to predict, as Kieran Culkin has won almost every award in the category. He's looking forward to memes contrasting his nonchalant acting style with the incredible rigor of "Succession" co-star and Best Supporting Actor nominee Jeremy Strong. Culkin's widespread acclaim makes him the clear frontrunner in this category.

The mathematician says that if filling out an Oscar pool, it's best not to overthink this one. He has swept the major awards and shows no signs of slowing down at the Oscars. Culkin's dominance in the awards season strongly suggests an Oscar win.

Best Supporting Actress

Critic: Zoe Saldaña ("Emilia Pérez")

Mathematician: Zoe Saldaña ("Emilia Pérez")

The critic says she strongly dislikes "Emilia Pérez," but while she thinks it has lost its chance of winning most of its 13 nominations, it won't go home empty-handed (which also explains one of her later picks). Zoe Saldaña is arguably the best part of that terrible thing—who, before Twitter-gate, she thought was Karla Sofía Gascón—and she, like Kieran Culkin, has nearly swept every award in the category. Despite the critic's reservations about the film, Saldaña's performance has been widely praised.

The mathematician says that the wider controversy surrounding the film may drag her down, but she has nevertheless continued to win throughout awards season. Saldaña's continued success, despite the controversy, suggests a strong chance of winning.

Best Original Screenplay

Critic: "Anora"

Mathematician: "Anora"

Best Adapted Screenplay

Critic: "The Re-Election"

Mathematician: "The Re-Election"

Best Animated Feature

Critic: "The Wild Robot"

Mathematician: "The Wild Robot"

Best International Feature

Critic: "Emilia Pérez"

Mathematician: "Emilia Pérez"