What's next after Ocalan's order to disband PKK?

Kurdish Workers' Party (PKK) leader Abdullah Öcalan issued an order on Thursday calling for the dissolution and disarmament of the organization he founded. This news quickly garnered widespread attention, sparking various interpretations and speculations.

Öcalan's statement has been generally welcomed by Turkish political leaders and the media. Öcalan has been imprisoned on İmralı Island in the Sea of Marmara since 1999. Previously, he had made numerous calls for ceasefires, especially between 2012 and 2015, but had never explicitly called for the PKK to dissolve.

Sources revealed that negotiations between the Turkish government, Öcalan, and the PKK lasted for more than a year before this decision was reached. Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) leader Devlet Bahçeli, a key ally in Turkey's ruling coalition, first publicly disclosed this initiative last October.

Despite Turkey's continued military operations against the PKK, Ankara allowed photographs of Öcalan to be taken and permitted pro-Kurdish politicians to publicly read his statement, which was broadcast live on all major news channels. Turkey, the European Union, and the United States all classify the PKK as a terrorist organization due to its attacks on civilians. The war between the PKK and Turkey has resulted in thousands of deaths since the 1980s.

Many analysts believe that Öcalan's call is a result of Turkey's military success in isolating the PKK, depriving the organization of territorial control and infiltration routes in the Qandil Mountains of northern Iraq since 2016. Turkey has utilized advanced drone technology and electronic warfare capabilities to weaken the organization. PKK-affiliated groups maintain a degree of free existence in Syria, where the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) control significant territory after ousting Islamic State militants.

Öcalan's statement not only called for the PKK's dissolution but also directly ordered the organization's leadership to convene a congress as soon as possible to finalize the necessary steps for dissolving the organization. Hürriyet columnist Hande Fırat, who has close ties to the Turkish government, wrote on Friday that the next steps had been agreed upon, including the PKK's umbrella organization, the Kurdistan Communities Union (KCK), organizing a congress within two to three months.

Meanwhile, Karar columnist Yıldıray Oğur, the first journalist to report on the negotiations, predicted that the congress could be held as early as March, rather than a longer timeframe. "The state, in particular, wanted the decision to disband – this was the state’s demand. They are very happy about it," Oğur told Middle East Eye. "Öcalan's statement is very clear, leaving no room for evasion." Öcalan took full responsibility for the decision, stating that the PKK had completed its mission.

Öcalan appeared on camera alongside three other prisoners – Ömer Hayri Konar, Veysi Aktaş, and Hamili Yıldırım – all senior commanders in the PKK, indicating that he was not making this decision alone. Fırat believes that once the PKK or the KCK formally decides to disarm and disband, including its armed branches in Syria, Iraq, and Iran, Ankara will shift its focus to democratic reforms, potentially easing legal pressure on Kurdish politicians.

Oğur stated that as a first step, the imprisoned former leader of the pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), Selahattin Demirtaş, could be released based on existing rulings from the European Court of Human Rights. Fırat outlined the next steps: "The handover and registration of weapons will begin in cooperation with neighboring countries. Foreign militants will be asked to leave their host countries. Those who choose to enter politics will be integrated into the political systems of their respective countries. Senior KCK leaders will be transferred to third countries."

Many expect that PKK leaders could be transferred to Sulaymaniyah in Iraq, a region controlled by the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), a party historically friendly to the armed group. Oğur recalled that during the 2013-2015 Turkish-PKK peace process, a list of PKK members was created, allowing those who had not been involved in armed conflict to return to Turkey without facing charges, while senior commanders were transferred to third countries.

One of the biggest uncertainties is how this decision will affect Syria. Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) commander Mazloum Abdi stated on Thursday that while his organization welcomed Öcalan's decision, it did not apply to the SDF, revealing that he had received a handwritten letter from Öcalan. However, Oğur believes that Abdi's reaction is not surprising, as the SDF officially denies any connection to the PKK.

"The PKK is the name of the movement, and Abdi – whether you like it or not – is part of it," he said. Oğur argues that Öcalan's statement also undermines the SDF's efforts to seek autonomy. "The inevitable consequence of excessive nationalism – independent nation-states, federations, administrative autonomy, and culturalist solutions – has failed to address the sociological problems of historical societies," Öcalan said in his address, effectively abandoning his previous demands for cultural autonomy.

Fırat added that if the SDF refuses to integrate into a new Syrian government with close ties to Ankara, Turkey may continue its military operations against the PKK, and may even escalate its operations against the SDF. According to Oğur, Abdi has been in favor of reconciliation with the government of Bashar al-Assad in Damascus, Syria, but the PKK leadership in Qandil has prevented this from happening.

"The PKK insisted on waiting for Israel and the United States," he added. "Turkey is encouraging the SDF, through its political wing, the Democratic Union Party [PYD], to become a political organization and participate in the Syrian constitutional process, participate in elections, and struggle through political means." Oğur acknowledged that within both the pro-Kurdish Turkish party Dem and the PKK, there are those who believe Öcalan's order to disband goes too far.

"But it is difficult for the PKK leadership to ignore this order, because Öcalan also sent separate letters to the Qandil Mountains, and everyone was informed of the situation," Oğur said, adding that Öcalan is regarded as a semi-deified figure within the organization. Ankara has already made contact with Salih Muslim, the co-chair of the PYD during the 2013-2015 period.

One unpredictable factor is Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Throughout the process, Erdoğan has maintained a low profile, only occasionally making comments to indicate his support for the process. However, Oğur believes that Erdoğan may view this as a major political victory, portraying himself as the leader who finally ended the PKK.

"The existence of the PKK will be invalidated, thereby allowing many political prisoners to be released, as most are imprisoned for belonging to a terrorist organization," Oğur said. "I know that the government is already studying this option."