Why the Gaza ceasefire has effectively collapsed

The ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip has effectively collapsed, transitioning from the initial phase focused on releasing Israeli hostages to the more complex issue of future governance of the Gaza Strip. Within Israel, releasing hostages is politically more palatable, while the issue of governance is far more contentious and presents significant challenges.

The first phase formally concluded last weekend, during which 33 Israeli hostages were released in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners. This phase was sustainable because it was widely popular within Israel and supported by the U.S. President Trump's administration, which was eager to align the timing of the hostage release with the presidential inauguration.

However, Israel has halted all aid shipments to the Gaza Strip and indicated plans to cut off electricity supplies. Israel's Channel 12 quoted an Israeli official as saying that the government has set a 10-day deadline for Hamas to release the remaining hostages in the Gaza Strip, or it will resume fighting. This ultimatum signifies a potential escalation of tensions and a return to conflict.

"We are currently at a deadlock regarding the agreement negotiations," the official told Israel's Channel 12. Hamas has stated that it will only release Israeli hostages in phases according to the ceasefire agreement, but Israel is now refusing to continue with the agreement. Israel is seeking to extend the first phase of negotiations, while Hamas says the ceasefire agreement should move to the second phase.

The Middle East Observer reported when the ceasefire agreement was signed that the real issue was the agreement's durability, that after the mutual congratulations, Israel and Hamas needed to begin negotiating a full Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip and a permanent end to the fighting. However, beyond the narrow goal of releasing hostages, neither Israel nor the United States appears to have the same sense of urgency to negotiate with Hamas.

Israeli and Hamas officials held indirect talks in Cairo last week to discuss a permanent end to the war, but these talks should have begun weeks earlier to allow sufficient time to resolve differences. Over the weekend, U.S. Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff floated a plan to temporarily extend the first phase, releasing half of the living hostages and half of the remains of deceased hostages in exchange for a pause in fighting.

On Monday, Witkoff announced that he would travel to the Middle East in the coming days to seek a solution to the deadlock, but there is no indication that the U.S. favors either side. A U.S. State Department spokesperson said: "Special Envoy Witkoff plans to return to the region in the coming days to seek a path to extend the first phase or to advance to the second phase." The U.S. remains actively involved in mediating the conflict.

Hamas agreed to the ceasefire because it held vague hopes for a permanent end to the war and a cessation of hostilities. For Israel, the most popular part of the ceasefire agreement was the release of its hostages, not ending the war. Hamas's public hostage handover ceremonies during the first phase, showcasing its military strength, only served to remind Israelis of their failure to achieve the goal of completely eliminating the group, as the government had previously promised.

Furthermore, the political cost of resuming the war is also decreasing for the Israeli government. According to the Associated Press, only 27 living hostages and 32 bodies of hostages who died in captivity remain in the Gaza Strip. Women, children, and elderly hostages have been released in the first phase, with the remainder being primarily men of fighting age. This may provide Israel with an opportunity to increase pressure on Hamas without facing as much public opposition.

As it stands, there is effectively no ceasefire agreement. Trump had previously stated publicly that he supported any decision made by Israel. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office announced on Sunday that Israel would resume its siege of the Gaza Strip, halting "the entry of all goods and supplies." Egypt and Qatar, which mediated the January ceasefire agreement, accused Israel of violating the agreement, but ABC News reported that Israel coordinated this action with the Trump administration.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, the U.S. approved a $4 billion arms sale to Israel, bypassing Congress by using emergency powers. The arms sale included more than 35,000 2,000-pound bombs. With fewer than 30 living hostages remaining in the Gaza Strip and the U.S. about to publicly approve the resumption of fighting, Netanyahu may believe that resuming attacks on the Gaza Strip is in his best interest.

Israel's threats and blockade of aid may also point in another direction: its Arab neighbors. Arab leaders will meet in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on Tuesday to discuss plans for the reconstruction and governance of the Gaza Strip. The Middle East Observer reported on an Egyptian proposal that would require Hamas to give way to a new Palestinian government that does not include senior officials from the Palestinian Authority in the West Bank.

The plan aims to ensure that Hamas does not maintain armed groups in the Gaza Strip outside of the government. Egypt has stated that Gulf states will "play a role in the Gaza Strip" through reconstruction investments to entice Hamas to give up its weapons. Reuters reported on Monday that Egypt warned that there would be no reconstruction investment if Hamas remained the "dominant and armed political force" controlling the government.

The Trump administration has, in its public statements, abandoned calls for the U.S. to take over the Gaza Strip and forcibly displace Palestinian residents, which world leaders and human rights organizations have called "ethnic cleansing." However, Israel may view resuming the war as an opportunity to pressure Palestinians to leave. On Monday, Netanyahu praised Trump's "visionary and innovative" plan to forcibly displace Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, saying that "now is the time to give them the freedom to leave."