Gaza ceasefire in peril as Israel and Hamas hit impasse

The second phase of the Gaza ceasefire agreement has been fraught with skepticism, and now, it appears to have collapsed even before its scheduled start. There are growing concerns that the war will return to this ravaged land, exacerbating the profound suffering of the Palestinian people and threatening the lives of the remaining hostages held by Hamas.

Israel, with the support of the United States, stated that there is now a new agreement after the first phase of the agreement ended last Saturday. Furthermore, Israel has halted all humanitarian aid to Gaza until Hamas accepts this new version, a move that has drawn international condemnation.

Egypt responded with strong language, calling it a "blatant violation." Egypt and Qatar, the two Arab mediators involved in the process along with the United States, also accused Israel of "using food as a weapon of war," violating international humanitarian law.

According to the terms of the agreement, 600 trucks carrying essential humanitarian aid were to enter Gaza daily – a substantial number of trucks passed through during the first phase of 42 days. Criticism from other Arab countries and humanitarian leaders has been mounting, reflecting widespread concern over the disrupted aid flow.

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres arrived in Cairo to attend an emergency Arab summit on Tuesday regarding the reconstruction of Gaza, and he called for an "immediate" resumption of aid. He urged "all parties to make every effort to prevent a return to hostilities," emphasizing the urgent need for de-escalation.

Under the agreement that came into effect on January 19, Israel was supposed to withdraw from the Philadelphi Corridor on the Egyptian-Gaza border this week and intensify negotiations to end the war, repatriate all remaining hostages, and exchange for the release of more Palestinian prisoners. However, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that a new plan had been presented by U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff.

Witkoff has not yet released his proposal, but Netanyahu said that the first phase of the ceasefire would be extended by 50 days to cover the Islamic holy month of Ramadan and the Jewish Passover, and negotiations would continue. In exchange, Hamas would immediately release half of the remaining hostages. Israel says 59 people are still being held captive, with "up to 24" believed to be alive.

Hamas on Monday condemned the sudden shift as a "blatant attempt (by Israel) to evade the agreement and avoid entering the second phase of negotiations." The group views the hostages as its most important bargaining chip and will do everything possible to hold onto them until the current confrontation ends on terms acceptable to it, showcasing its determination to secure favorable outcomes.

A day earlier, Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty emphasized: "There is no alternative to all parties faithfully and fully implementing the agreement signed in January of this year." Israeli media reported an Egyptian proposal that Hamas release three living hostages and the remains of three dead in exchange for a two-week extension of the ceasefire and an Israeli withdrawal from the Philadelphi Corridor and the main north-south road, Salah al-Din Road.

But an Arab diplomat familiar with the negotiations said that talks in Cairo have not yet resumed, although "technical teams are in constant discussion." At this point, a dangerous stalemate is inevitable. Prime Minister Netanyahu's primary goal has always been to "destroy" Hamas's military capabilities and political control, a stance that complicates any potential resolution.

During the hostage releases, Hamas's elaborate ceremonies and displays of force angered Israelis and highlighted that while Hamas's power has been greatly diminished, it remains dominant in Gaza. Arab diplomatic sources say that while Hamas has accepted not participating in the governance of Gaza after the war, it will not give up its remaining influence, indicating a desire to maintain some level of control.

This is unacceptable to Israel and its most important ally, the United States. The U.S. National Security Council said on Sunday that it fully supports Israel's "next steps." It placed the blame squarely on Hamas, saying the group had "indicated it is no longer interested in a negotiated ceasefire agreement," reinforcing the US's alignment with Israel's position.

Prime Minister Netanyahu, in a video address, called President Donald Trump "the greatest friend Israel has ever had in the White House." But Israeli media said Washington is also pressuring Israeli leaders not to restart the fighting, suggesting a divergence in priorities.

It is widely believed that this pressure, even before the Trump team enters the White House on January 20, has pushed for a ceasefire agreement. Pressure is also mounting from Israelis who are increasingly eager to see all the hostages return home. On Sunday evening, hundreds of protesters broke through police barriers outside the Prime Minister's residence in Jerusalem, reflecting growing public frustration.

The American president, hailed by his supporters as "the best peace-maker in the world," may once again shape the parameters of war or peace. In the meantime, both sides are weighing options to win peace on terms they can accept and preparing to resume fighting, demonstrating the precarious balance between diplomacy and conflict.