According to an exclusive analysis by the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC News), the UK's mortality rate reached a historic low last year. Mortality experts analyzed death certificates registered in 2024 and found that the population mortality rate has returned to pre-pandemic levels, slightly lower than the previous record in 2019. This suggests a positive trend in public health outcomes.
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03-04, 2025However, the new data shows that the improvement in the UK's mortality rate has returned to a long-term trend of slow progress. The study was conducted by analysts at the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI), part of the UK's Actuarial Association. Stuart McDonald of CMI stated, "Basically, this is five years of stalled mortality improvement, which is pretty poor by historical standards." This highlights a concerning stagnation in the nation's health progress.
He also pointed out a "worrying" increase in mortality among the younger working-age population. Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the UK Department of Health stated that the government is "shifting the focus from disease to prevention." This strategic shift aims to address underlying health issues and improve overall well-being.
From 1974 to 2011, the UK's registered mortality rate steadily halved, largely due to improvements in controlling heart disease, including smoking prevention and medical advancements. From 2011 to 2019, the rate of improvement slowed sharply, before reversing during the COVID-19 pandemic, which saw thousands of additional deaths. The first year after the pandemic, 2022, also saw a large number of excess deaths. These fluctuations underscore the impact of both long-term health initiatives and unexpected crises.
To calculate the record low of 989 deaths per 100,000 people in the UK in 2024, CMI analysts used provisional weekly death registration data from the four nations of the UK. "It is clear that our mortality rate is lower in 2024 than it has been in the past, which is very good news," said Dr. Veena Raleigh, an epidemiologist at the King's Fund health think tank. "But if you take a broader view, the situation is not so good." This highlights the importance of considering long-term trends and broader contexts.
Although other similar countries have also experienced a slowdown in growth since 2011, the situation in the UK is more severe, and our life expectancy is "at the bottom of comparable countries," she added, noting that countries such as Spain had returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023. Researchers have pointed out that there are many reasons for the slowdown in mortality since 2011. Some of the "low-hanging fruit" improvements in heart disease and cancer, such as declines in smoking rates, have already occurred, making further progress more difficult. This suggests the need for innovative approaches to further improve public health.
At the same time, the UK faces an increasing number of risk factors, including obesity, poor diet, and low levels of exercise, which in turn interact with increasing social inequalities and pressures on the NHS. Some academics argue that austerity cuts to public services after the 2008 financial crisis had a strong impact on life expectancy, while others say this cannot be directly proven. These complex factors highlight the interconnectedness of health, economics, and social policy.
The latest official figures show that dementia and Alzheimer's disease are the leading causes of death in England and Wales. Heart disease, lung disease, stroke, lung cancer, and, in some years, influenza also account for a large proportion. "Cardiovascular disease remains the UK's biggest killer," said Professor Bryan Williams, Chief Scientific and Medical Officer at the British Heart Foundation. "The stagnation we are seeing in reducing deaths… is a cause of serious concern, and the impact of the pandemic on already overstretched healthcare services has made the situation worse." He added that deaths from cardiovascular disease have increased in the poorest areas of England and called on the government to take "urgent action" to prevent, detect, and treat it. This emphasizes the need for targeted interventions to address health disparities.
Overall mortality largely reflects the health of older people, as more than three-quarters of deaths in the UK occur over the age of 70. Therefore, the main trend is driven by the demographics of this age group. But the CMI found "very significant differences" in younger age groups, with a "worrying" upward trend in mortality among 20-44 year olds. "For people in this age group, even before the pandemic, mortality rates were actually rising slightly. If we go back to 2011, we can see mortality rates rising slightly year on year." This concerning trend warrants further investigation and targeted interventions.
The number of deaths in this age group is far lower than in older people, and the causes of death tend to be different. Fewer than 20,000 people aged 20-44 die in the UK each year, accounting for about 3% of all deaths. "External and substance-related causes are most important, as these are usually the causes of death for people in this age group," said Antonino Polizzi, a researcher at the Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science at the University of Oxford. "Such as drug overdoses, alcohol-related deaths, accidents, homicides and suicides." He said that the UK, particularly Scotland, has seen an increase in drug-related deaths. "These causes have generally improved in other Western European countries, so we are seeing a different effect." This highlights the need for tailored public health strategies to address specific risk factors in younger populations.
Addressing the overall trends for all age groups, a spokesperson for the UK Department of Health and Social Care said: "We inherited a broken NHS and we are determined to fix it. Through our transformation plan, we are shifting the focus from disease to prevention and targeting the unhealthy drivers, detecting the biggest killers early. We are creating the first smoke-free generation, stopping junk food advertising aimed at children, and improving the detection of diseases such as cancer and cardiovascular disease." This outlines the government's commitment to improving public health through comprehensive and preventative measures.
