French President Emmanuel Macron has proposed a plan that could potentially break the deadlock in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: a one-month localized truce between Russia and Ukraine. Macron believes this could be key to achieving lasting peace between the two countries and presented the idea at a summit of European leaders in London. This initiative reflects a growing international effort to explore avenues for de-escalation.
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03-04, 2025In an interview with Le Figaro, Macron suggested a four-week truce regarding "aerial, maritime, and energy infrastructure." This truce would not include ground combat on the eastern front. "If there is a ceasefire, it will be difficult to verify whether the front lines are respecting [the agreement]," Macron told the newspaper. This targeted approach aims to address specific areas of conflict.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot stated in a separate interview, "A truce on aerial, maritime, and energy infrastructure would allow us to determine whether Russian President Vladimir Putin is acting in good faith when he pledges a truce. Only then can real peace negotiations begin." The proposal currently appears to be more of an idea than a fully developed plan, with specific details remaining unclear. However, the essence of the hypothesis seems to separate the process of ending the fighting. This staged approach could facilitate a more structured path towards peace.
The initial short-term truce—a measure less permanent than a formal ceasefire—would offer an opportunity to test Russia's willingness to negotiate peace. It could also potentially provide an early political win for President Trump. This does not involve any territorial concessions and could create political space to begin serious talks on a lasting peace. This potential for progress makes the proposal worth considering.
According to the French proposal, a European "guarantee force" would only be deployed to Ukraine to deter future Russian aggression after any lasting ceasefire agreement is reached. Lord Mandelson, the British ambassador to Washington, appeared to endorse the idea in an interview on ABC News on Sunday, saying, "Ukraine should first commit to a ceasefire and challenge Russia to follow suit." This security component aims to provide stability and prevent future conflict.
However, British government officials and ministers reacted coolly to the French truce idea on Monday, emphasizing that it has not yet become an agreed-upon proposal. British Armed Forces Minister Luke Pollard stated on the BBC's "Today" program, "There are many options that are being discussed at the moment. But these options have not been agreed." A spokesperson for the Prime Minister said, "Clearly there are a number of options on the table. I just wouldn't want to provide a running commentary on them." This cautious response highlights the complexities and ongoing discussions surrounding the proposal.
Italian Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani was more blunt, stating through the Italian news agency ANSA that the idea was "premature." "I think everything must be done together, Europe and the United States sitting together with Ukraine and Russia to reach a just and above all lasting peace," Tajani said. "So it is premature to establish now what to do, how to do it." This perspective underscores the need for a comprehensive and coordinated approach involving all key stakeholders.
Difficulties with the idea are apparent. How would one measure whether anonymous drone strikes on Ukrainian power plants violate the agreement? Why would Ukraine give Russian forces a month of free time to reorganize and rearm? Nevertheless, Western diplomats say that the idea of a partial truce is not entirely a "whim" of President Macron—who is known for floating ideas at international summits. These practical challenges need to be addressed for the proposal to be viable.
They say it could be part of a European ceasefire plan that is being developed and then submitted to the United States. Clearly, some new ideas may be needed to break the current deadlock, as divisions remain between the United States and Ukraine, while European countries are struggling to find ways to mend diplomatic rifts. This collaborative effort aims to find a path forward amidst the ongoing challenges.
Of course, everything depends on what Ukraine and Russia think. When asked on Sunday evening if he was aware of the French truce plan, Ukrainian President Zelensky simply said, "I am aware of everything." So far, there is no evidence that Russia is willing to agree to a partial truce. As Zelensky put it: "Anyone who wants negotiations does not deliberately attack people with ballistic missiles." The ultimate success hinges on the willingness of both parties to engage constructively.
