Israeli settlers in West Bank see Trump win as chance to push on

On clear days, from the hilltop of Karnei Shomron, an Israeli settlement in the occupied West Bank, the skyscrapers of Tel Aviv are clearly visible. Sandra Baras, who has lived in Karnei Shomron for nearly 40 years, says she feels very different here than she does in Tel Aviv, because she believes she is living in the place where her ancestors lived thousands of years ago, not in occupied territory, but in the biblical region of Judea and Samaria.

For many settlers, the line between the state of Israel and the territory seized from Jordan in the 1967 Middle East war has blurred in their narrative. A visitor audio guide at a hilltop viewpoint describes the West Bank as "a region of Israel" and the Palestinian city of Nablus as land promised by God to the Jews.

Despite the fact that the UN's highest court and most countries consider the settlements illegal, settlers like Sandra have long dreamed of formally annexing this territory, and the settlements have grown year after year. With the election of Donald Trump as US President, many saw an opportunity to go further. "I was thrilled that Trump won," Sandra said, "and I very much hope to expand sovereignty in Judea and Samaria. I feel that's something Trump could support."

There are indications that some in his incoming administration might agree with her. Mike Huckabee, Trump’s nominee to be the new US ambassador to Israel, said in an interview last year that he supported Israel’s claim to the West Bank. He said, “When people use the word ‘occupied,’ I say, ‘Yes, Israel is occupying the land, but it’s an occupation of land that God gave them 3,500 years ago. It’s their land.’”

Yisrael Gantz, the head of the regional settlement council that oversees Karnei Shomron, said he has noticed a change in tone from the incoming Trump administration since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack on Israel triggered the war in Gaza. "In Israel and in the United States, they understand that we must implement sovereignty here," he told me. "It’s a process. I can’t tell you it will happen tomorrow. But in my opinion, the dream of a two-state solution is broken."

US President Joe Biden has maintained the US position of support for a future Palestinian state coexisting with Israel. When asked if he had heard a different tone from the incoming Trump administration, Gantz replied, "Of course, yes." But there are also signs that Israelis lobbying for annexation of the West Bank, some of whom serve in the cabinet, may be disappointed by Trump’s decisions.

Their hopes are rooted in memories of Trump's first term as president, when he broke with decades of US policy and international consensus to recognize Jerusalem as the capital of Israel, and Israeli sovereignty over the occupied Golan Heights, which were seized from Syria in 1967. But supporting annexation of the West Bank would be a much larger and more complicated issue for Trump.

It could alienate Saudi Arabia, another key US ally in Washington, complicating Trump’s chances of achieving a broader regional deal. It could also alienate moderate Republicans in the US Congress who are concerned about the plight of Palestinians in the West Bank and their future status under Israeli rule.

Settlement leader Sandra Baras told me that West Bank Palestinians who don’t want to live in Israel can "go wherever they want to go." When asked why they should have to leave their homes, she said: "I’m not driving them out, but things change. How many wars have they started? They lost." She continued: "If sovereignty moves forward, there will certainly be a lot of yelling and screaming. But at some point, you create a reality that is irreversible."

Shortly after Trump won the election last November, Israel’s far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, publicly called for the annexation of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. "2025 must be the year of sovereignty in Judea and Samaria," he said. Regardless of whether the new US President agrees, many Palestinians say that the discussion about formal annexation misses the point – Israel is already annexing territory here in practice.

Moheeb Salameh is one of them. He led me through the ruins of his home, which was built on private Palestinian land outside Nablus. The building was ruled illegal by an Israeli court and demolished last year. Under the Oslo Peace Accords, which were signed three decades ago, Israel has temporary control over 60% of the West Bank's security and planning.

While settlements are expanding, permits for Palestinian homes are almost never approved. Lawyers say that demolitions like this are increasing. "It's all part of a policy to force us out," Moheeb said. "It's a policy of forced migration. What impact does me building a house here have on them (the Israelis)? We are no threat to them."

Palestinians are also increasingly being forced off their land by violent Israeli settlers, who are sanctioned by the US and the UK, and who largely go unchallenged in Israeli domestic courts. Activists say that more than 20 Palestinian communities in the West Bank have been displaced in the past few years due to increasingly violent attacks, and settlers are now encroaching on new areas outside of the temporary Israeli civil control zones.

Moheeb told me that no US president has ever protected the Palestinians, and he doesn't believe Donald Trump will either. The next US president is widely seen as a friend to Israel. But he is also someone who likes to make deals and avoid conflict.