Gaza war death toll could be significantly higher, researchers say

A study published in the medical journal The Lancet suggests that the number of Palestinian deaths resulting from the Gaza war may be significantly higher than the official figures reported by the Hamas-run health ministry. This UK-led study covered the first nine months of the war, which began on October 7, 2023, with an attack on Israel by Hamas militants.

The study used data from the health ministry, an online survey of relatives reporting deaths, and obituaries. It estimated that 64,260 Palestinians died from trauma by June 30, 2024, indicating a 41% underestimation of deaths. The Israeli embassy in the UK stated that "any information coming out of Gaza is not credible" and accused it of serving Hamas. The UN, however, considers the health ministry's data reliable.

The health ministry's figures do not distinguish between combatants and civilians, but a recent UN report stated that, over a six-month period, most verified victims were women and children. Israel claims that Hamas's figures are not credible. In August, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) stated that they had "eliminated more than 17,000 terrorists," but it is unclear how this figure was derived. The IDF insists that they only target combatants and try to avoid or minimize civilian casualties.

Israel does not allow independent access to Gaza for international journalists, including those from media organizations such as the BBC, making it difficult to verify facts on the ground. The team behind this latest study used a statistical method called "capture-recapture," which has been used to assess death tolls in other conflicts. Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine studied how many people appeared repeatedly in different attempts to count deaths. The degree of overlap between these lists suggests that the number of deaths directly caused by trauma in the conflict could be much higher than the hospital data published by the health ministry.

The Gaza health ministry publishes daily updates on the war's death toll. It compiles deaths recorded by hospitals, those reported by families, and those from "reliable media reports." The Lancet report estimates the death toll to be between 55,298 and 78,525, while the health ministry reported 37,877 deaths. The report's figures could rise or fall significantly depending on the technical details of the analysis. For example, identifying "trauma" deaths in each data set can be tricky, and errors could push the study's estimates higher or lower. The study also stated that, among the dead for whom gender and age data were available, 59% were women, children, and the elderly.

The Gaza war was triggered by an attack by Hamas that resulted in the deaths of around 1,200 people and the abduction of 251 others who were taken hostage back to Gaza. Israel subsequently launched a large-scale military offensive in Gaza. The health ministry states that Israel's actions have resulted in 46,006 deaths, the majority of whom were civilians.