Biden voters passed on Kamala Harris because of Gaza, new poll shows

A new poll indicates that nearly one-third of U.S. voters who voted for former President Joe Biden in 2020 decided not to vote for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election due to Biden's support for Israel's war in Gaza. This poll, conducted by the Institute for Middle East Understanding (IMEU) and YouGov, attempts to explain why Harris received 6 million fewer votes in 2024 than Biden did in 2020.

The survey, released last week, found that 29% of Americans who voted for Biden in 2020 but not for Harris in 2024 cited “ending the violence in Gaza by Israel” as the reason for their abstention. The IMEU stated that “Vice President Harris lost votes because of the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s genocide against Palestinians in Gaza.” This reason outweighed issues such as the economy, immigration, healthcare, and abortion, which have been focal points for voters in past presidential elections. Foreign policy typically plays a smaller role in voter turnout.

Following a poor performance in her first debate against Donald Trump, Biden withdrew from the race, and Harris became the Democratic nominee in July of last year. While many Democratic voters hoped Harris would distance herself from Biden’s unconditional support for Israel’s war in Gaza, Harris did not make efforts to separate herself from her predecessor on the issue. At the Democratic National Convention in August 2024, when Harris was officially nominated as the Democratic presidential candidate, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) faced large pro-Palestinian protests outside the venue.

Inside the convention, DNC delegates aligned with the “Uncommitted Movement” called on convention leaders to allow a Palestinian speaker to address the main stage, a request that was explicitly denied. While Harris has been more moderate in tone and expressed sympathy for Palestinians killed and impacted by Israel’s continued bombing, Harris and those around her have consistently reaffirmed their support for Israel’s war efforts. “Let me be clear, the Vice President was, is, and will always be a strong supporter of Israel as a secure, democratic, and Jewish state, and she will always ensure that Israel can defend itself, that is Kamala Harris’s position,” Harris’s husband, Doug Emhoff, said in a Zoom call in July 2024.

The IMEU and YouGov poll surveyed 604 voters between December 20, 2024, and January 7, 2025. In the 2024 presidential election, Harris received 75 million votes, while Trump received 77 million votes. Considering the relatively small overall decrease in voter turnout in several swing states in 2024, it's difficult to determine if one issue alone caused previous Biden voters to not vote for Harris. However, the IMEU and YouGov poll found that 36% of 2020 Biden voters would have been more likely to vote for Harris if she “pledged to break with President Biden’s policies on Gaza and pledged to stop sending more weapons to Israel.” For the same reason, 10% of 2020 Biden voters would have been less likely to vote for Harris. Among the same group of voters, 53% said that Biden’s support for Israel was “too much.”

During the 2024 election cycle, key figures within the Democratic Party portrayed Harris as a better option for voters angered by the U.S. support for Israel's war in Gaza. The war, which began with Hamas's attacks on southern Israel in October 2023, has resulted in the deaths of over 46,000 Palestinians, while destroying much of Gaza's civilian infrastructure and displacing most of the region's 2 million Palestinians. A leading progressive figure in the Democratic Party, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, claimed in August that Harris was “working tirelessly” for a ceasefire in Gaza. However, a ceasefire between Hamas and Israel was ultimately achieved after Trump won the presidency and his envoy-designate traveled to the region to push Israel to accept a deal.

“The Democratic Party needs to confront the real reasons why it lost the presidency in November, including the party leadership’s failure to listen to its own voters, who overwhelmingly wanted their government to end its complicity in Israel’s genocide in Gaza, after more than a year of unprecedented protests and calls for Biden to stop sending weapons to Israel,” the IMEU stated.