US intelligence agencies believe Israel is likely to strike Iranian nuclear facilities this year

U.S. intelligence agencies recently issued warnings to both the Biden and Trump administrations that Israel may attempt to attack facilities critical to Iran's nuclear program this year. This assessment indicates that Israel's willingness to take military action clashes with President Trump's current desire to reach a peace agreement with Tehran. Such a divergence in objectives presents a significant challenge for U.S. foreign policy in the region.

U.S. intelligence warns that a large-scale attack on Iranian nuclear facilities could increase the risk of a larger war breaking out in the Middle East. A U.S. intelligence report also pointed out that Israel is still pursuing a broader goal, namely, to bring about regime change in Iran. These assessments reflect the conflicting interests the Trump administration faces in dealing with tensions surrounding Israel in the Middle East, requiring careful consideration of all potential consequences.

Trump has stated that he hopes to reach a nuclear agreement with Tehran, a goal that could at least postpone Israeli military action for the time being. He said last week that he prefers a "verified, non-nuclear peace agreement" to a joint military operation with Israel to "bomb Iran to smithereens." "I want to make a deal with Iran on the nuclear issue. I'd rather do that than bomb it," Trump said in an interview with the New York Post. Iranian officials said earlier this month that they have not had contact with the Trump administration regarding negotiations.

According to sources, at least one recent U.S. intelligence report issued by the Pentagon shows that Israel's intention is to destroy Iran's nuclear facilities and its ballistic missile capabilities, and that Israel's ultimate goal remains to overthrow the Iranian regime. The report also stated that Israel cannot destroy Iran's nuclear program without U.S. assistance, including aerial refueling and bombs needed to penetrate deep underground facilities. A former senior Biden administration official said that Israel has "always" considered options for attacking Iran.

U.S. intelligence assessments emphasize that Trump's calculations on Iran may face pressure from multiple directions, including Israel's desire to take more military action against Iran. During Trump's first term, he shut down the nuclear agreement reached between the Obama administration and Tehran and ordered a U.S.-led attack on Iranian commander Qassem Soleimani, two actions that suggest Trump's current stated desire for diplomacy with Iran may not last. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, a staunch political ally, was the first world leader invited to the White House during Trump's second term. It remains unclear how Netanyahu will use his relationship with the president to address the Iran issue.