Champions Trophy 2025: India favourites but can be beaten by Australia

The Indian team has demonstrated formidable dominance in the Champions Trophy over the past 11 days, winning all three matches with overwhelming superiority, further solidifying their status as the best white-ball team in the world. This may not be surprising, as their strength has long been widely recognized.

Following their victory against New Zealand on Sunday, a reporter asked New Zealand bowler Matt Henry whether he thought India's strategy of choosing five spin bowlers was very "clever." Henry subtly masked his bewilderment, as other teams simply do not have such an opportunity. This strategic advantage is a testament to India's depth in spin bowling talent.

India's ability to schedule all their matches in Dubai is a significant advantage, stemming from their earlier decision not to travel to Pakistan for the tournament. They possess the best spin bowlers and, without needing to change hotels or process passports, can fully leverage these bowlers on pitches most suited to slow bowling. Compared to the other three venues in this competition, Dubai's slow bowling average performance is the best, conceding the fewest runs and making it easier to take wickets.

Unlike the other three semi-final teams that need to balance their lineups according to the rhythm of Lahore or the bounce of Karachi, India does not have to worry about this. Rohit Sharma's team fielded three spin bowlers in the first two matches, and when the pitch became drier, they added a fourth spin bowler to counter New Zealand, with architect-turned-mystery spinner Varun Chakravarthy contributing 5 wickets for 42 runs.

But this should not overshadow the excellent skills of India's four spin bowlers. Chakravarthy, Ravindra Jadeja, Axar Patel, and Kuldeep Yadav are all top players in their respective fields. Even their fifth spin option, non-regular bowler Washington Sundar, who has not yet featured in this tournament, could easily make it into the starting lineup of the struggling England team.

India may be more than a match for Australia on any ground, the latter being the world champions but missing three of their best fast bowlers. But Tuesday's semi-final will be played on a dry pitch, which favors India. "Whoever beats India will win it, it's as simple as that," former England captain Michael Vaughan said. "I think Australia are the only team that can beat them, but I doubt it on the Dubai pitch."

Australia also holds some advantages in recent encounters. They won an epic Test series this winter and the 2023 World Test Championship final, and most importantly, they won the 50-over World Cup final later that year – the most recent match in this format. They will draw confidence from that day's chase victory, exploiting India's tendency not to go all out when batting first.

Rohit Sharma has been trying to eliminate this problem from the team for the past two and a half years. The issue resurfaced in last year's T20 World Cup final, despite their eventual victory. "Australia have the confidence to chase any score, but if they bat first, it could all fall apart," former England spinner Alex Hartley said. "They could panic against the spinners and get bowled out for a very low score, but if they are chasing a score, they will have the mindset to stick it out."

With the pitches starting to spin again, India's lineup is unlikely to change. Australia has lost opener Matt Short and recalled 21-year-old Cooper Connolly, who has only played three ODI matches. They could promote Josh Inglis as an opener and bring in fast bowler Aaron Hardie, or deploy aggressive opener Jake Fraser-McGurk. Connolly at least provides captain Steve Smith with another left-arm spin option.

Smith will heavily rely on his leg-spin bowler Adam Zampa, who has dismissed Rohit four times, Virat Kohli five times, and Hardik Pandya and KL Rahul four times each in ODI matches. India's spin strength also means their death bowling has not been tested in this tournament, as they are missing the great Jasprit Bumrah due to injury.

In Bumrah's absence, this role will fall to Mohammed Shami and Hardik, if Australia can be the first team to take them to the final stages. Since the start of 2022, Shami has conceded runs at a rate of 8.12 per over in the last 10 overs of ODI matches, making him one of the more expensive death bowlers in the world, while Hardik is one of 11 bowlers in the recent Indian Premier League to concede more than 10.9 runs per over.

Australia will train at the Dubai International Stadium on Monday evening – the site of their 2021 World Cup victory – ensuring their decision to leave Pakistan on Saturday, despite not knowing whether they would play there, was not in vain. South Africa faced a similar situation, flying in on Sunday, but unfortunately, they took a three-hour flight back to Pakistan on Monday morning, less than 24 hours after arriving.

The second semi-final will be a rematch of New Zealand's victory, also at the Gaddafi Stadium, 21 days ago. In that match, Mitchell Santner's team chased down 305 runs with 8 balls to spare, but South Africa's lineup has been strengthened due to the end of the SA20. New Zealand were too hesitant in the chase against India on Sunday, and they hope to beat Rohit's team again if the favorites progress.

South Africa's strong middle-order players Aiden Markram, Heinrich Klaasen – considered the best player of spin in the world – and David Miller, who has the highest average against slow bowling in top-level ODI matches since the start of 2022, will not be so conservative. Perhaps Temba Bavuma's team is the most likely to break the deadlock.

India is not invincible, but defeating them will require something special.