Over 50% of adults predicted to be obese by 2050

A global data study published in The Lancet predicts that by 2050, more than half of adults worldwide, along with a third of children, adolescents, and young people, will face overweight or obesity. Covering data from over 200 countries, the study reveals the severe trend of global obesity in the coming decades. Researchers warn that obesity rates are expected to rise rapidly in the remaining years of this decade, particularly in low-income countries.

The study shows that as of 2021, nearly half of the global adult population, namely 1 billion men and 1.11 billion women aged 25 and above, were already overweight or obese. The proportion of men and women suffering from these conditions has doubled since 1990. If current trends continue, the proportion of overweight and obese adults worldwide is projected to rise to 57.4% (men) and 60.3% (women) by 2050, respectively.

In terms of absolute numbers, China (627 million), India (450 million), and the United States (214 million) will be the countries with the largest overweight or obese populations in 2050. However, due to population growth, the overweight or obese population in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to grow by more than 250%, reaching 522 million. The situation in Nigeria is particularly prominent, with the number expected to more than triple from 36.6 million in 2021 to 141 million in 2050, making it the fourth-largest country in terms of overweight or obese adult population.

Professor Emmanuela Gakidou from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington in the United States, the lead author of the study, stated: "Governments can use our country-specific estimates of the magnitude, timing, and speed of weight change to identify priority populations that bear the greatest burden of obesity and require immediate intervention and treatment, as well as those that remain predominantly overweight and should primarily adopt preventive strategies." She added, "The unprecedented global overweight and obesity pandemic is a profound tragedy and a major societal failure."

Dr. Jessica Kerr from the Murdoch Children's Research Institute in Australia, a co-author of the study report, stated that these data pose a real challenge to healthcare systems in the coming years. "However, if we take action now, it is still possible to prevent children and adolescents from fully transitioning to global obesity." She added, "Our estimates identify children and adolescents with overweight in most of Europe and South Asia, who should be the target of obesity prevention strategies. We have also identified large populations in North America, Australia, Oceania, North Africa and the Middle East, and Latin America, particularly adolescent girls, who are expected to transition to predominantly obesity and require urgent, multifaceted interventions and treatment. This is crucial to avoid the intergenerational transmission of obesity and prevent future generations from facing a range of serious health problems and terrible economic and social costs."