Data shows Trump's criticisms are increasing trust in Zelenskyy

Recently, reports have surfaced indicating that senior members of former U.S. President Trump's team held talks with Ukrainian opposition politicians, discussing the possibility of holding elections during wartime. While these talks were touted as being conducted in secret, they were actually widely known.

Yulia Tymoshenko and Petro Poroshenko, political rivals of Ukrainian President Zelenskyy, have both confirmed their participation in the discussions, but both ruled out the possibility of holding early elections. While such a move would be constitutionally contentious, the calls from within the Kyiv government to replace the government face even greater challenges.

Recent data indicates that Ukrainian public trust in the president has actually increased, even as Trump and his administration have intensified their criticism of Zelenskyy over the past three weeks. To better understand this phenomenon, it is crucial to review Trump's recent statements and actions. On February 12, Trump announced that he had a roughly 90-minute phone call with Russian President Putin, marking the first formal contact between Washington and Moscow since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Subsequently, on February 19, Trump falsely claimed that Zelenskyy's approval rating was only 4%.

Since then, Trump has accused Zelenskyy on social media of being a "dictator without elections," prompting Zelenskyy to respond that Trump lives in a Russian "information space of falsehoods." These events all occurred before the two men met in the Oval Office last week and Trump's subsequent decision to suspend aid to Ukraine. If Trump was trying to incite public opposition to Zelenskyy, experts and the latest data suggest that he has not succeeded.

The Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) regularly publishes survey data on public attitudes toward national leaders. Its latest survey shows that as Trump intensified his criticism, Ukrainian trust in Zelenskyy appears to have increased. The survey was conducted from February 14 to March 4, covering the period of Trump's multiple attacks on Zelenskyy. Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS, stated that the increase in public trust in Zelenskyy did not stem from attacks on his person, but rather because "Ukrainians perceived the statements of the new U.S. administration as an attack on the whole of Ukraine and all Ukrainians."

Mani Hollet, a lecturer in Russian and East European Politics at Oxford University, stated: "All the messaging I have seen coming out of Ukraine in the past few days shows enormous support for their president. The Ukrainian people greatly admired the way Zelenskyy handled the Oval Office meeting and strongly felt that he was bullied and ambushed in that situation." A poll released by London-based Survation on February 28 showed that Zelenskyy would be expected to win easily if elections were held at that time. Maria Zolkina, head of regional security and conflict studies at the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation, a Kyiv-based independent think tank, said that there is a paradox to Trump's pressure on Zelenskyy, that the more he follows Russian propaganda, claiming that the Ukrainian president is illegitimate, the more the domestic reaction is the opposite, with Zelenskyy gaining more trust and support.

Trump and some within his administration have questioned whether Zelenskyy should hold elections, but this is contrary to the Ukrainian constitution. Ukraine has been under martial law since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion on February 24, 2022, during which elections are prohibited. Furthermore, many believe that there are insurmountable logistical challenges. The Ukrainian parliament also unanimously voted in support of the country's president last month. A YouGov poll released this week showed that Zelenskyy's "favorability" among the British public increased by 64 percentage points to 71 between February 17 and March 5.

Kristen Bakke, a professor of political science and international relations at University College London, stated that actions such as the U.S. suspension of aid to Kyiv have had a significant impact on people's perceptions, not only in Ukraine but also elsewhere. "This rallying support for Zelenskyy seems to be reflected in most other societies and countries as well, certainly in many European countries," she said. "People are outraged by the behavior and the sheer rudeness of what happened in the Oval Office. But it's not necessarily that the rhetoric will make Ukrainians more or less invested, it's the actions, such as the actual reality of external support."