According to two officials involved in the negotiations on Tuesday, Hamas has accepted a draft agreement for a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and the release of dozens of hostages. Mediators from the United States and Qatar stated that Israel and the Palestinian armed group are now very close to reaching an agreement, which would bring both sides closer to ending the 15-month-long war.
The Associated Press obtained a copy of the proposed agreement, which was confirmed as authentic by an Egyptian official and a Hamas official. An Israeli official said that progress has been made in the negotiations, but details are still being finalized. All three officials requested anonymity when discussing the negotiations. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a speech on Tuesday, "I believe we will reach a ceasefire," emphasizing that it depends on Hamas. "The situation is very close, closer than ever," and news could come in hours or days.
The United States, Egypt, and Qatar have been trying to mediate an end to the war for the past year and secure the release of dozens of hostages captured during the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023. Nearly 100 people are still being held in Gaza, and the military believes at least a third of them have died. Any agreement is expected to pause fighting and bring hope for an end to the deadliest and most destructive war ever between Israel and Hamas, a conflict that has destabilized the Middle East and sparked global protests.
The draft agreement is divided into three phases: the first phase lasts 42 days, during which Hamas releases 33 hostages, including women, children, and civilians over 50 years old. In return, Israel releases 30 Palestinian prisoners for each civilian hostage and 50 for each female soldier. During this period, fighting will cease, Israeli forces will withdraw from densely populated areas, returning to the edge of the Gaza Strip, displaced Palestinians will begin to return home, and more aid will enter the Gaza Strip. The second phase, also lasting 42 days, will declare a "sustainable calm," with Hamas releasing the remaining male hostages (soldiers and civilians) in exchange for an as-yet-unnegotiated number of Palestinian prisoners and a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip. The third phase will exchange the remains of deceased Israeli hostages and deceased Palestinian militants and implement a reconstruction plan in Gaza, reopening border crossings into and out of Gaza.
If an agreement is reached, it will not take effect immediately. The plan needs to be approved by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's security cabinet and the full cabinet. Both cabinets are dominated by Netanyahu's allies, who are likely to approve any proposal he puts forward. Officials have previously expressed optimism, but negotiations ultimately stalled, with both sides blaming each other. However, they are now suggesting that they could reach an agreement before U.S. President-elect Donald Trump takes office on January 20, and Trump's Middle East envoy has also joined the negotiations. Hamas said in a statement that the negotiations have entered the "final stages."
In the October 7 attack, Hamas-led militants killed about 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and kidnapped another 250. About half of the hostages were released during a brief ceasefire in November 2023. According to the families of the remaining hostages, there are 2 children, 13 women, and 83 men. Israel's retaliatory offensive has killed more than 46,000 Palestinians, more than half of whom are women and children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry, which does not specify how many of the dead were combatants. Late Tuesday, Israeli airstrikes on two homes in central Gaza killed at least 17 Palestinians and injured 7 others, and hospital officials said some of the bodies were dismembered. An earlier attack killed at least 18 people, including two women and four children, and local health officials said one of the women was pregnant and the baby also died. The Israeli military did not immediately comment. Israel says it only targets militants and accuses them of hiding among civilians.
The three-phase agreement is based on a framework proposed by U.S. President Joe Biden and endorsed by the UN Security Council. The agreement would begin with the release of 33 hostages within six weeks, including women, children, the elderly, and wounded civilians, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian women and children imprisoned by Israel. Among the 33, there will be 5 Israeli female soldiers, each of whom will be exchanged for 50 Palestinian prisoners, including 30 militants who are currently serving sentences. Israeli officials say Israel believes most of the 33 are still alive. During the 42-day first phase, Israeli forces will withdraw from population centers, Palestinians can begin to return to the ruins of their homes in northern Gaza, and about 600 trucks will enter daily, with humanitarian aid surging.
The details of the second phase still need to be negotiated during the first phase. These details remain difficult to resolve, and there is no written guarantee in the agreement that the ceasefire will last until an agreement is reached. This means that Israel may resume its military operations after the first phase ends. Israeli officials said that "detailed negotiations" on the second phase will begin during the first phase. He said that Israel will retain some "assets" throughout the negotiations, referring to a military presence, and will not leave the Gaza Strip until all hostages are home. Egyptian officials said that the three-party mediators have verbally assured Hamas that negotiations will continue as planned and that they will urge an agreement to be reached before the end of the first phase to implement the second and third phases.
The agreement would allow Israel to continue to control the Philadelphi Corridor throughout the first phase, a strip along the Gaza-Egypt border, from which Hamas initially demanded that Israel withdraw. Israel will withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor, a strip across central Gaza, where Israel had tried to establish a mechanism to search for weapons when Palestinians returned to the northern part of the area. In the second phase, Hamas will release the remaining living captives, mainly male soldiers, in exchange for more prisoners and a "complete withdrawal" of Israeli forces from Gaza, according to the draft agreement. Hamas has said that it will not release the remaining hostages without an end to the war and a complete Israeli withdrawal, while Netanyahu has vowed in the past to resume fighting until Hamas' military and governing capabilities are eliminated. Unless an alternative government for Gaza is worked out in these negotiations, it could leave Hamas in continued control of the area.
In the third phase, the remains of the remaining hostages will be returned in exchange for a three-to-five-year reconstruction plan for Gaza under international supervision. Blinken was finalizing debates on Tuesday on proposals for Gaza's post-war reconstruction and governance, outlining how to manage Gaza without Hamas control. Israel and Hamas are facing increasing pressure to stop the war before Trump takes office. Trump said late Monday that a ceasefire was "very close." On Tuesday night, thousands of Israelis rallied in Tel Aviv in support of the agreement they have long encouraged. "This is not about politics or strategy. This is about humanitarianism and the common belief that no one should be left in the dark," said Moran Stella Yanai, a hostage who was released from Gaza earlier. But in Jerusalem, hundreds of hardliners marched against the agreement, with some shouting, "You cannot make a deal with the devil," referring to Hamas.
In the Israeli-occupied West Bank, families of Palestinian prisoners also gathered. "I tell the mothers of the prisoners to trust in the Almighty, relief is coming, God willing," said Intisar Bayoud, a mother of a prisoner. Inside Gaza, a weary Oday Halimi expressed hope from a displaced persons' tent camp. "Of course, Hamas will abide by the ceasefire agreement, and Israel doesn't want to oppose Trump or anger him," he said. A child, Marsha Zakout, who was born in Gaza on the first day of the war, sat in another tent camp playing with toys in her pink pajamas. "We are eagerly awaiting the ceasefire to happen so that we can live in safety and stability," her mother, Rola Sak, said.
This report has been updated to correct that about 100 people, including foreign nationals, are still being held in Gaza, not 100 Israelis. Shurafa reported from Deir al-Balah in the Gaza Strip. AP journalists Joseph Federman in Jerusalem, Fatma Khaled in Cairo, Matthew Lee in Washington, and Natalie Melzer in Nahariya, Israel, contributed to this report.