A look at the terms — and tensions — in the Israel-Hamas draft ceasefire deal - Voice of Asia

According to the current ceasefire agreement draft between Israel and Hamas, fighting in the Gaza Strip will cease for 42 days, during which dozens of Israeli hostages and hundreds of Palestinian prisoners will be released. In the first phase, Israeli forces will withdraw to the edge of the Gaza Strip, many Palestinians will be able to return to their remaining homes, and aid supplies will be increased.

However, the question is whether the ceasefire agreement can be sustained after the first phase. This depends on further negotiations that will begin in the coming weeks. In these negotiations, Israel, Hamas, and mediators from the United States, Egypt, and Qatar will have to address the issue of governance in Gaza, while Israel insists on eliminating Hamas.

If a second-phase agreement is not reached within these 42 days, Israel may resume military operations in Gaza to destroy Hamas, even if dozens of hostages remain in the hands of militants at that time. Hamas has agreed to the draft ceasefire agreement, but Israeli officials have stated that the details are still under discussion, meaning some terms could change, or even the entire agreement could ultimately fall through.

In the first phase, Hamas will release 33 hostages in exchange for Israel releasing hundreds of imprisoned Palestinians. By the end of this phase, all living women, children, and elderly people held by militants should be released. There are currently about 100 hostages still being held in Gaza, including civilians and soldiers, and the military believes at least a third of them are already dead. On the first day the ceasefire officially takes effect, Hamas will release three hostages, followed by another four on the seventh day. After that, a batch of hostages will be released each week.

In the first phase, Israeli forces will withdraw to a buffer zone about one kilometer wide along the Gaza-Israel border. This will allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes, including in Gaza City and northern Gaza. With most of Gaza's population displaced into makeshift tent camps, Palestinians are eager to return home, even though many houses have been destroyed or severely damaged by Israeli military operations. However, Israel insists on controlling the movement of Palestinians northward to ensure that Hamas does not bring weapons back into these areas. According to the draft seen by the Associated Press, Israel will withdraw from the Netzarim Corridor and completely withdraw from it on the 22nd day of the ceasefire, but Israeli officials still insist on controlling the corridor and inspecting Palestinians returning to the north.

In the first phase, aid supplies entering Gaza will increase to hundreds of trucks per day, including food, medicine, supplies, and fuel, to alleviate the humanitarian crisis. This is far more than Israel has allowed to enter during the war. For months, aid organizations have struggled to distribute even small amounts of aid entering Gaza to Palestinians due to Israeli military restrictions and gang looting of aid trucks. The ceasefire should ease this situation. Malnutrition and disease are spreading among Palestinians, who are crowded into tents, lacking food and clean water. Hospitals have been damaged, and supplies are scarce. The draft stipulates that equipment will be allowed in to build shelters for tens of thousands of people whose homes have been destroyed and to rebuild infrastructure such as electricity, sewage, communications, and road systems.

If all goes well, the two sides must still address the issues of the second phase. Negotiations on the second phase will begin on the 16th day of the ceasefire. The overall framework for the second phase is clear in the draft: all remaining hostages will be released in exchange for Israel's complete withdrawal from Gaza and "sustainable calm." But this seemingly simple exchange raises bigger questions. Israel has stated that it will not agree to a complete withdrawal until Hamas's military and political capabilities are eliminated and it cannot rearm, to ensure that Hamas no longer controls Gaza. Hamas, on the other hand, has stated that it will not hand over the last hostages until Israel withdraws from all areas of Gaza.

Therefore, negotiations must lead the two sides to agree on an alternative governance plan for Gaza. In effect, Hamas must agree to be disempowered, although it may seek to retain a place in a future government, which Israel strongly opposes. The draft agreement stipulates that an agreement on the second phase must be reached before the end of the first phase. Both sides will face pressure to reach an agreement, but what if they don't? Several scenarios are possible. Hamas had hoped for written assurances that the ceasefire would last until an agreement was reached on the second phase. It has accepted verbal assurances from the United States, Egypt, and Qatar. However, Israel has made no such guarantees. Therefore, Israel may threaten new military action to pressure Hamas in negotiations, or it may directly resume its military operations, as Prime Minister Netanyahu has threatened. Hamas and the mediators are betting that the momentum of the first phase will make it difficult for him to do so. Resuming attacks would risk losing the remaining hostages, which would anger many people against Netanyahu, although failing to destroy Hamas would also anger key political partners.

The third phase is likely to be less contentious: the remains of the remaining hostages will be returned in exchange for a 3- to 5-year reconstruction plan for Gaza implemented under international supervision.