It's possible Trump might get friendly with Iran

During a discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos, former Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif expressed his hope that US President Donald Trump would show more "rationality" towards Iran in his second term. Zarif believes that Iran does not pose a security threat to the world.

Zarif said, "I hope that this time, 'Trump 2.0' will be more serious, more focused, and more realistic." A statement from Tehran's Foreign Ministry indicated that Zarif would not meet with any US or third-country officials during his visit. However, it is not surprising that many are speculating about whether any off-the-record talks with Trump administration officials will take place.

The US President has recently made some key personnel appointments and fired some diplomats, moves that seem to suggest he is seeking some degree of engagement, which could lead to an agreement with Iran. In 2018, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (also known as the nuclear deal), a major foreign policy achievement of the Obama administration, as part of his "maximum pressure" campaign against Iran. Despite the insistence of the UN and European partners on the agreement, Iran believes that if the US is no longer involved, it will also go its own way. The ensuing harsh US sanctions have meant that Iran has not been able to recover economically since then.

In January 2020, the US assassinated Iran's top military commander, Qassem Soleimani, in Iraq. After leaving office, Trump revealed that it was then-Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu who pushed him to do so, but Israel later denied involvement in the operation. Now, perhaps the clearest indication that Iran is willing to reconcile with Washington to alleviate its economic woes, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei announced this week that he "does not allow the armed forces of the Islamic Republic to develop nuclear weapons." But how open is Trump to easing relations with Tehran?

Just after midnight in Washington on Tuesday, Trump fired Wilson Center’s special envoy for Iran, whom he had previously appointed to the White House. Brian Hook, who had led the "maximum pressure" campaign, was a well-known hawk within government circles. Jamal Abdi, president of the National Iranian American Council, told Middle East Eye: “Brian Hook, immediately after being appointed by Trump to lead the State Department transition (last year), started doing TV interviews, sounding like he was still living in 2017 and 2018… like he had never left his position, and I think, actually, that narrowed Trump's political space. I suspect that had a lot to do with it.”

Thirty minutes before firing Hook, Trump withdrew the security detail assigned to his former national security advisor, John Bolton. Earlier that day, he called Bolton a “warmonger” who helped “blow up the Middle East.” For much of his career, Bolton has openly advocated for direct US military action against Iran. In 2022, the Justice Department charged an Iranian national with plotting to assassinate him. Bolton wrote on X: “I am disappointed but not surprised that President Trump has decided to terminate the Secret Service protection previously provided. The threat to my life remains real today, as evidenced by the recent attempted assassination of President Trump.” In November, the Justice Department charged another Iranian national, alleging he was ordered by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to kill Trump.

However, while the President will continue to take a hard line against Tehran, especially as he pursues his “peace through strength” principle, he has also appointed some individuals who advocate for restraint to key positions. These appointments may indicate that the administration will take a different path this time. One of the most recent is Michael Dimino, who was sworn in on Monday as Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East, who, according to Al-Monitor, is effectively the Pentagon's chief policymaker in the region. Dimino, a former CIA counterterrorism officer, has praised the Biden administration for not joining Israel's missile strikes against Iran and has made it clear that he does not believe US regime change ventures are effective.

“I think he represents the essence of Trump’s thinking about the US role in the Middle East,” Abdi told MEE. He added that Dimino “has said a lot of things that Trump has said, so hopefully he can actually be the person who helps translate those ideas into actual policy.” Elbridge Colby will also take on a senior role at the Pentagon as Deputy Under Secretary of Defense for Policy. Colby, the grandson of former CIA director William Colby, previously worked at the Pentagon during the previous Trump administration. Since then, he has publicly written about his foreign policy priorities and frequently comments on the areas where he believes Washington should prioritize its national security and military agenda: China, not the Middle East.

According to a report by Politico last week, Trump is also considering nominating right-wing former congressional candidate Joe Kent as the next director of the National Counterterrorism Center. This move could see another senior Trump official who advocates for a reduced US military presence in the Middle East. Abdi told MEE: “Trump hasn’t issued an executive order declaring ‘maximum pressure’ back on, right? He hasn’t come out and said, ‘We’re going to destroy these guys.’ He’s had advisors say that, but we haven’t seen him do it. And I think that matters.” Abdi said that diplomatic channels under the Biden administration were “few and far between.”

“So where we are now is that there has to be talks, or the voices coming out of Washington are ‘it’s time to bomb,’ and the voices coming out of Tel Aviv are ‘it’s time to bomb.’” “This has to end. It has to end quickly.”