Will recapture of presidential palace change course of Sudan war?

The jubilant scenes of soldiers in Khartoum mark a significant advance in the Sudanese army's offensive to reclaim large swathes of territory in recent months. The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) lost control of the capital early in the war and have been battling for two years to retake it from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

Now, they have retaken the presidential palace and believe they are moving towards retaking the remaining parts of the capital. However, they are far from winning the entire war. The complex, including the historic Republican Palace, is a symbol of power and sovereignty, crucial for the military-led government and its narrative as the legitimate ruler fighting "terrorist militias." This also represents a strategic victory.

According to an army spokesman, after clearing the outer areas of greater Khartoum, the army has occupied most of the city center, driving RSF fighters out of key locations such as government buildings and away from the army's general headquarters. This means that the RSF has effectively lost control of the capital, even if its fighters remain stationed in Khartoum. But it is unclear how far the front lines have moved. RSF fighters are still scattered around the city center and stationed in part of the airport. They also occupy areas south of the presidential palace.

Bloody fighting is expected to continue as the army attempts to encircle the remaining RSF forces. The paramilitary force has shown that, despite its weakened position, it can still fight back, launching a drone attack on the presidential palace that killed several Sudanese journalists and military officers. A full army victory in the capital could reset the direction of the war or exacerbate the division of the country between the two rival forces.

The RSF, led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti), controls most of the Darfur region in western Sudan and some areas in the south. The military-backed government, led by army chief General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, controls eastern and northern Sudan. The two men once cooperated and launched a coup together, after which their power struggle erupted into civil war in April 2023.

Full control of Khartoum could help the army complete its control of central Sudan, where it has already retaken territory from the RSF. It could also create momentum for the SAF to challenge General Hemedti in his Darfur stronghold, especially in El Fasher, a city that has been under RSF siege for nearly a year. But many observers believe that Sudan is in danger of falling into a de facto partition, with the two warring parties and their supporters consolidating themselves within their respective spheres of influence.

The RSF is working to establish a parallel government in the areas it controls, gathering allied groups to sign a political charter and constitution in Nairobi last month. Its aim is to show that, despite setbacks on the battlefield, it remains a powerful force and that its desire to control the country has not diminished.

The Sudanese people have borne the brunt of this brutal civil war, which has brought mass death, destruction, and human rights abuses to civilians. The United Nations has described the situation in the country as the world's worst humanitarian crisis. More than 12 million people have been forced to flee their homes, millions face severe food shortages, and parts of the country are on the brink of famine. Khartoum is one of the areas expected to soon reach famine conditions, as RSF soldiers have carried out widespread looting, and the Sudanese government has restricted aid. Therefore, the shift in power in the city could have a significant impact on the humanitarian situation there.

But for most Sudanese people, this means that little is likely to change in the immediate future. According to UN officials, both sides have been accused of obstructing emergency aid, effectively using it as a weapon of war. Both sides have been accused of war crimes, although critics have particularly accused the RSF of mass rape and genocide.

The army will hope that retaking the presidential palace can be a springboard for a broader, eventual military victory. But the International Crisis Group said in a recent report that, while the SAF has momentum, neither side is likely to achieve a victory that would allow them to rule all of Sudan. Nevertheless, both sides have vowed to continue fighting for the rest of the country, and efforts to resume peace talks have so far failed.